CLARITY Act Passage Odds Crash To Just 10%

Galaxy Digital has cut its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 10%, a sharp reversal from the optimism that surrounded the bill only months ago.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, stated the revised figure in an Aug. 14 post on X, down from 75% in May. The collapse in confidence reflects a combination of unresolved political disputes and an increasingly compressed Senate schedule.

A Rapidly Closing Window

The bill would divide U.S. crypto oversight between two federal regulators. Senators return to Washington on Sept. 14 and face a working period of roughly three weeks before leaving for midterm election activity around Oct. 2. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion before the August break, setting a Sept. 15 procedural vote. That leaves virtually no margin for error.

Galaxy Research said in an August 14 note that it is lowering its odds of passage to 10%, down from 60% after a bipartisan Senate Banking Committee markup in May and 30% by late July. As Thorn put it, "The reality is that CLARITY is now much more about politics than policy."

Disputes Blocking Progress

While Congress has largely agreed on how to divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, ethics disputes and stablecoin provisions are now the biggest barriers to passage. One of the most contentious issues is the question of ethics. Some members of Congress want the bill to restrict members, officials, and staff from profiting from crypto-related activity while in office. On the stablecoin side, the American Bankers Association has argued the bill creates a loophole allowing digital asset platforms to offer interest-equivalent yields outside the GENIUS Act's prohibition on issuer-paid interest.

The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 by 294-134, giving it strong bipartisan support. But 2026 has been dominated by negotiations over DeFi, stablecoins, ethics provisions, and enforcement powers. If the September procedural vote fails, proponents will have to wait until after the elections to try again, and the new Congress will have even less time to pass the bill, making its passage before the end of 2026 unlikely.

Separately, and independently of Galaxy's estimate, betting odds on prediction market Polymarket for CLARITY Act passage in 2026 fell from about 82% to roughly 16% over a similar period.

Sources:
Bitcoin.com News: CLARITY Act Odds Crash to 10% Before Senate Returns
The Crypto Times: Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 10%
Coinpedia: CLARITY Act Timeline 2026