U.S. CPI hits lowest levels in 4 months

CPI Lands at 3.4%, In Line With Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on August 12, and the headline number came in exactly where markets had anticipated. The year-on-year CPI forecast stood at 3.4%, with the prior reading at 3.5%. The closely watched index was seen rising 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in the prior month, based on the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The in-line print marks the lowest CPI reading in four months, offering a modest but meaningful signal that inflation pressures continue to ease from their recent peaks.

Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.20% monthly and 2.5% annually, marking the lowest reading since January. Inflation in core goods is expected to continue low, while core services are expected to return to trend levels following the June decrease.

$XRP Defends $1.00 as $BTC Draws Institutional Bids

For crypto markets, the expected result provided a degree of relief. $XRP had been under sustained pressure heading into the print, with the $1.00 level emerging as a critical line in the sand. As of August 11, XRP traded around $1.01, digesting a decline of roughly 2.7% over the prior 24 hours. The token had been struggling to maintain ground above the psychologically important $1.00 threshold, with bearish momentum dominating price action for multiple weeks.

Spot XRP ETFs recorded zero flows on 11 of July's 22 trading days, taking in just $27.29 million for the entire month, according to SoSoValue data, against the $666 million the same vehicles gathered in their first month of trading in November 2025. The soft ETF demand had amplified selling pressure, making a benign CPI reading all the more important for sentiment.

With the macro uncertainty now cleared, institutional desks are showing renewed appetite for $BTC. A CPI print that lands on target removes one near-term risk from the table, and Bitcoin has historically attracted fresh institutional liquidity in that kind of environment. For $XRP bulls to regain control, the token must first recapture the $1.06 level, followed by breaking through the resistance band spanning $1.08 to $1.15.

The broader inflation trajectory will remain a key input for crypto positioning in the months ahead, particularly as markets watch for any signal on the Federal Reserve's next move.

Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index Release, August 12, 2026
Bloomberg: Inflation Seen Easing as US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.1% in July
CoinSpeaker: XRP Price Analysis August 2026, $1 Floor at Risk