CLARITY Act Could Fall 10 Votes Short

The Senate's Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is in serious danger of missing its pre-recess window, with analysts warning the chamber could fall as many as 10 votes short of the 60 needed to move the bill forward.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has yet to file the procedural motion required to advance the legislation, even as the August recess approaches. Reports indicate that ethical concerns over President Donald Trump's crypto business interests are a central sticking point, with a bloc of Democrats unwilling to support the bill without stronger conflict-of-interest protections.

Ethics Disputes at the Heart of the Deadlock

Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis sent an ethics compromise proposal to the White House last week in an effort to break the impasse. Democrats are pushing for state attorneys general enforcement powers and the removal of any sunset clause from the ethics provisions. Seven Democratic negotiators, including Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner, and Raphael Warnock, said the draft fell short while committing to continued negotiations.

Senate Democrats "realize this and are unlikely to want to be seen approving of potential conflicts by voting for Clarity Act unless it has tough conflict-of-interest language," TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg said. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has also opposed the revised bill.

TD Cowen Calls Pre-Recess Vote "Improbable"

TD Cowen Managing Director Jaret Seiberg, writing in a note from the firm's Washington Research Group, said his team remains pessimistic that the CLARITY Act will be enacted this year. He warned the Senate could fall around 10 votes short of the 60-vote threshold needed to invoke cloture and advance the bill. Cloture requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and with the Senate at a 53-47 Republican majority, at least seven Democrats would need to cross the aisle.

Missing the pre-recess deadline would be a significant blow to the possibility of 2026 passage, though Thune has said he hopes to at least start the floor process before the summer break, when lawmakers will turn their attention to midterm election campaigns. If the legislation is delayed further, a final regulatory framework could be pushed back until after 2027.

The bill, which would draw clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC on crypto oversight, has been working its way through Congress for over a year. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act by a vote of 15-9 on May 14, 2026. Congressional prediction markets currently estimate only a 30 to 38 percent chance of the Act passing before year-end.

Sources:
The Block: TD Cowen on CLARITY Act hurdles
CoinDesk: CLARITY Act expected to miss summer window
Forbes: Crypto's Landmark CLARITY Bill Is Running Out of Time