Is Bitcoin Finally Entering A Bottoming Phase?

Long-Term Holder Losses Trigger Bottoming Signal

A key Bitcoin on-chain indicator is flashing a familiar warning, one that has appeared around every major cycle bottom in the asset's history. According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, Bitcoin's adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) metric for long-term holders (LTH) has moved below zero and dropped beneath the broader market average, a shift that historically marks the late stages of a bear market.

FXStreet reported MorenoDV writing that "the market is no longer experiencing an ordinary correction; long-term capital is now being tested." Historically, major Bitcoin cycle bottoms have occurred when long-term holders were carrying deeper unrealized losses than the broader market, and the current structure therefore resembles conditions seen during previous macro bottoms.

The aNUPL metric is a refined version of the standard NUPL gauge. CryptoQuant's adjusted NUPL analysis, attributed to MorenoDV, suggests long-term holders are experiencing meaningful unrealized losses as $BTC trades well below its cycle peak. Adjusted NUPL measures unrealized profit and loss while reducing distortions from inactive supply.

Conditions Match History, but Confirmation Is Not Yet In

While the setup is familiar, analysts caution that the current level of stress remains well short of true capitulation. In past cycle extremes, the relative unrealized loss figure has risen to more than 50 cents per dollar of Bitcoin value held. Glassnode wrote that while stress exists in the current market, the long-term holder base remains well removed from the pain levels that have historically marked cycle bottoms.

Fidelity Digital Assets data adds further context: as of early July 2026, long-term holder supply had reached a new all-time high, with nearly 15 million $BTC having remained unmoved for at least 155 days. While a portion of shorter-term holders may be capitulating due to leverage or broader market weakness, long-term holders have largely remained steadfast, even with nearly 40% of long-term holder supply held at an unrealized loss.

MorenoDV stopped short of calling a definitive bottom, noting that another leg lower could still be needed before the cycle truly turns. CryptoQuant's models point to September through November as the most probable window for a confirmed low. That view aligns with a broader analyst consensus. Glassnode shows 45 Bitcoin metrics in capitulation, marking the longest such stretch since the FTX collapse, with analysts Cowen, CryptoQuant, and Brandt targeting a September to October bottom.

For now, the on-chain picture suggests $BTC is in a transition zone: past the peak of easy profits, but not yet through the deep pain that typically precedes a durable recovery.

Sources:
FXStreet: Bitcoin Shows Early Signs of Bottom Despite Lingering Market Stress
Fidelity Digital Assets: Analyzing BTC's Long-Term Holder Supply
247 Wall St: Where Do Analysts Say Bitcoin Bottoms?