Circle's Growth Story May Not Need The CLARITY Act

Bernstein Stands By Circle With $140 Target

Analysts at Bernstein are not losing sleep over the fate of the CLARITY Act. The research and brokerage firm maintained an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), saying the company's growth cycle can continue even if the CLARITY Act does not pass. Bernstein's $140 price target implies approximately 59% upside from Circle's recent closing price of $87.98.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients that Circle's growth cycle is independent of CLARITY Act passage, pointing to a macro regime shift favouring hard assets and stablecoins, growing stablecoin payment adoption, real-world blockchain capital markets, and agentic AI payments settling in USDC as drivers that are all moving forward regardless of what happens on September 15.

USDC Supply Rebounds and Demand Broadens

USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion over the past week after nearly six months of largely flat growth. That rebound has added weight to Bernstein's bullish case. Adjusted transaction volume, which Bernstein said excludes bots and high-frequency activity, reached about $11 trillion during 2025 and was running at an annualized pace of roughly $17 trillion through July 2026, representing an increase of about 60% from a year earlier.

Circle controls roughly 80% of decentralized exchange volumes, and its Agent Stack platform already hosts more than 900 paid services with 99% of agent-payment volume settling in USDC. Bernstein flagged all three of these areas, including DeFi, tokenized assets and agentic payments, as ongoing sources of demand that do not depend on any single piece of legislation.

Circle has also been expanding its institutional infrastructure. In July, the company received approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised national trust bank. Bernstein's catalyst roadmap into the end of 2026 also includes Arc's public launch on September 16 and a Digital Asset Tax Bill expected in late September.

Not all analysts are equally bullish. Susquehanna flagged that reserve income still accounts for 95% of Circle's revenue and that the Coinbase revenue share weighs on margins, adding that more competitors are showing up. The firm raised its price target to $92 from $69 but stayed at Neutral on the stock.

The Block: Bernstein says Circle's growth cycle can continue without the Clarity Act | Crypto.news: Bernstein keeps $140 Circle target even if CLARITY Act fails | Benzinga: CRCL Could Hit $140, Says Bernstein