Bitcoin Bull Market May Have Just Begun

Hayes: Treasury Policy Is the New Liquidity Lever

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) says a new $BTC bull market may already be underway, and the catalyst has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

In his August 25 essay, "Same Same But Different," Hayes points to a shift in US Treasury policy as the key driver. The Treasury confirmed on August 19 that it would at least double the maximum size of certain long-end liquidity-support buybacks. Treasury doubled long-end buyback caps to at least $4 billion per operation beginning September 9, 2026.

Hayes argued that purchasing older, longer-dated securities could raise their prices and suppress yields, and that lower yields make risk assets comparatively more attractive, encouraging capital to move toward Bitcoin. His core argument is that this mechanism can expand dollar liquidity without requiring the Fed to act at all.

A Playbook Hayes Has Seen Before

Hayes compared Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's approach with former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's increased reliance on Treasury bills in late 2023, a strategy he believes helped move money-market balances out of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse-repurchase facility and into marketable securities. He sees the current setup as a potential repeat of that liquidity-driven environment, which coincided with a significant rally in risk assets.

In Hayes's view, Bitcoin responds primarily to the rate of fiat debasement: when liquidity contracts, Bitcoin sees downside, and when liquidity expands, prices go higher. On that basis, he believes the latest Treasury actions could trigger a similar rally for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Hayes called the Bitcoin bull market underway and said Maelstrom, his crypto investment firm, has reached maximum risk portfolio exposure levels. "The next bull market… just began," Hayes claimed, although Treasury buybacks are debt-management operations and not equivalent to Federal Reserve quantitative easing.

It is worth noting that Hayes's views represent one interpretation of Treasury mechanics. Markets may not respond as predicted, and the relationship between Treasury buyback activity and Bitcoin price action remains a matter of debate among analysts.

Sources:
crypto.news: Bitcoin bull market underway, Arthur Hayes says
Yahoo Finance: Arthur Hayes: Dollar Liquidity Will Drive BTC Higher in 2026