CLARITY Act Faces Three Big Fights Before Senate Vote

Three Disputes Standing in the Way

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is heading toward a pivotal Senate procedural vote on September 15, but three unresolved disputes are making the 60 votes needed for cloture difficult to lock in.

The first and most politically charged fight is over ethics. Several Senate Democrats have labeled the bill "corrupt" over the absence of independently enforceable provisions that would restrict senior public officials and their families from profiting on crypto interests while in office. Lawmakers are still working to secure a bipartisan agreement on provisions governing President Trump's crypto holdings, including an addendum negotiated with the White House that would require him to divest from crypto-related businesses. As of the time of writing, there was still no word from the White House on the proposed addendum.

The second sticking point is stablecoin rewards. The May committee substitute reflected a negotiated approach to idle-balance yield and activity-based rewards, but banks and crypto firms continue to dispute the boundary, and the issue remains live in the updated Senate text. Senator Jack Reed also filed amendments that would, among other things, replace the negotiated stablecoin rewards definition with banking-industry-preferred wording.

The third dispute centres on DeFi protections. Reed's proposed amendments include a proposal to eliminate the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which shields non-custodial software developers from criminal prosecution. That removal would significantly narrow the bill's protections for decentralised finance participants.

A Tight Window and Diverging Market Signals

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, with the next procedural vote scheduled for September 15, 2026. The 2026 congressional elections pose a further challenge for the bill's supporters. The campaign season will soon begin and the Senate's state work period starts in October, making the September vote the last realistic opportunity to advance the legislation before the elections.

Prediction markets are pricing in that uncertainty. As of August 31, Kalshi traders placed a 91% probability on a Senate vote occurring before October. Polymarket, however, gave the bill just a 13% chance of becoming law this year. Polymarket odds for the bill being signed into law in 2026 had already fallen below 20% earlier in August, following months of uncertainty over whether the Senate could advance the legislation.

The CLARITY Act, if passed into law, would provide a legal structure for most cryptocurrency activity in the United States, boosting confidence in the market. The bill passed the House in July 2025 by a vote of 294 to 134. But with three contentious disputes still unresolved and the legislative calendar tightening, the September 15 cloture vote now represents the clearest indicator yet of whether a landmark US crypto framework can actually become law this year.

Sources:
The Block: Majority Leader Thune Files Cloture on Clarity Act, Setting Up Sept. 15 Senate Vote
CoinDesk: U.S. Senate Opens First Stage of Crypto Clarity Act Voting
Latham & Watkins: US Crypto Policy Tracker, Legislative Developments